Yesterday’s election in Norway reaffirmed the Workers’ Party coalition in power, while the traditional right was replaced by the far right. Kim Wingerei on how it compares to Australia.
One of the oldest true democracies in the world, Norway votes every four years. Voting is not compulsory, yet nearly 80% participate every time, reflecting a high level of voter engagement.
The labour movement dominated the post-WWII decades and firmly established a social democracy, largely unopposed by a conservative party that, when in power, tinkered at the edges, but didn’t rock the boat. A boat, which, to be fair, was kept steady by the oil and gas discoveries that have made Norway the richest little country in the world.
However, the last few decades have seen a splintering of parties all along the spectrum. In the 1950s and 1960s, Arbeiderpartiet – the Workers’ Party – regularly enjoyed 45% or more of the vote, whereas the right (‘Høyre’) peaked in the 1980s at 32% and always had to rely on a coalition of centrist parties to govern.
This year, the Workers’ Party ended up on 28.2%, up 2% from 2021 but still one of its worst ever results. It will form a coalition government with a multitude of smaller parties that share more progressive views on the environment, taxation, and Norway’s place in world affairs.
The rise of the ‘progressives’
Despite its immense wealth, isolated aspect, and small population, Norway has not been immune to what has been happening in the rest of the world. There is much unease about the country’s role in climate change, burning little or no fossil fuel itself, but exporting it in abundance to Europe, building the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund in the process.
How to use that fund is becoming more controversial, and the rich are still crying poor because of their tax burden, with some very publicly announcing moves to tax havens. Immigration – relatively modest as it is – is no longer as accepted as it once was – quite the contrary.
And therein lies the recent rise and rise of the ‘other’ right – ironically known as The Progressive Party (‘Fremskrittspartiet’). Led by the eloquent and politically cunning Sylvi Listhaug, they are now the second largest party in Norway, with 24% of the vote, up 50% from last time.
The ‘old’ right has dropped to under 15%, its lowest share ever, and a disastrous result for former Prime Minister Erna Solberg.
Listhaug ran a successful campaign capitalising on the disenchantment with the established parties, with a message of lower taxes, less immigration and climate change denial. She thrives on not being from the capital, Oslo, and thus not being a member of the ‘establishment’. Any other comparison to Clive Palmer or Pauline Hanson stops right there.
What’s next?
A year ago, the Workers’ Party and Prime Minister Jonas Støre were given little or no chance of winning another term. Støre managed to steer through some pretty choppy waters and brought back the well-respected and popular former Prime Minister and NATO leader, Jens Stoltenberg, into his cabinet.
(The Stoltenberg extended family is as close as any Norwegian family comes to the Kennedys (without the baggage), counting many former and present politicians and bureaucrats among their ranks.)
On the other side, Solberg muddled through the damaging exposure of her husband’s share trades while she was PM. And Listhaugh took advantage of it all.
With her eyes now set on 2029, she is, however, no Trump, although his shadow looms large over conservatives everywhere, including in the fjords. Nor does Listhaugh evoke the same extreme nationalism of Marine Le Pen in France or Germany’s Alice Weidel. She is much closer to Henrik Ibsen’s quintessential larrikin, Peer Gynt.
In Australia, much of the protest vote went to more progressive independents back in May, and less to the extreme right. In Norway, the protest votes went mainly to the ‘progressive’ right. The LNP has much to learn from that; little chance they will.
And by the way, less than 24 hours after the polling booths were closed, 99% of votes were counted, all seats declared. Perhaps the AEC has something to learn, too…
A tale of two fossil superpowers: what Australia can learn from Norway
